Iowa Caucus Predictions

I’ll take a stab at it.  This is based mostly on gut.

Dems:

  • Obama  37%
  • Edwards 33%
  • Hillary 27%

I’m giving Edwards a jump because of his statement on Iraq today…first Democrat front runner with the balls to set a date.  Hillary has no momentum and Obama seems to have a solid lead.

Repubs:

  • Romney 27%
  • Huck 22%
  • Paul  18%
  • McCain  17%
  • Guilani  7%
  • Thompson 7%

This one is a mess.  I’ve dropped Huck because of his stupid ad press conference and because he’s a scab (how can you cross a picket line the night before an election?).  I think Paul’s numbers go up since it seems like 99% of his people will actually show up to vote while other candidates are less likely to get that kind of turnout.  Plus, I saw him a lot on TV today so maybe the media doesn’t want to be caught looking foolish.  Thompson’s numbers are probably going to be lower because it looks like he doesn’t want to win.  Rudy doesn’t care and I think old people like McCain.

The two big issues this year are going to be the sinking economy (the lending and credit crunch is going to be brutal) and Iraq as both will continue to get worse and worse and more people will realize one has a direct affect on the other.  This should be an easy victory for the democrats but their failure in congress this past year will put voters off.

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