Dow Falls Because of Consumer Spending? Yeah Right

The headlines are saying the dow is falling because of consumer spending and the fact that we are in a recession.  Yeah right.  Sure, like that info wasn’t already known.  

Gee guys, you think the real reason could be ummm…The terrorist attack in India!  Let’s see a financial center in a country gets attacked….what did you think was going to happen?  Plus, how many US companies have offshore centers there? 

Now, you can see why the dow is truly down today.

Isn’t it time for normal relations with Cuba?

How long do we need to shun that country?  Does anyone really think our current policy is a good one? 

Russia would like to search for oil off the coast of Cuba.   (notice it reads Russia and not Soviet Union) That makes sense.  Not having normal relations with a tiny country 90 miles from your border doesn’t.  It’s not like Cuba is this big badass that we need to be afraid of.  Are we afraid their cigars will turn everyone into a socialist?  To me, it’s one of those policies that has just continued on with no one raising their hand and saying, “this isn’t working!  Let’s try something new!” 

Fidel has resigned.  The Soviet Union is gone.  Turn the page America.   Don’t you think if Americans were visiting Cuba and talking to Cubans on a daily basis that maybe, just maybe Cubans would move towards being a democracy?  It’s like we have this new video game system and instead of showing it to our neighbor, we keep it locked away from them and refuse to play their own archaic system.   How will they know what they are missing without seeing it firsthand?

Another Monsanto Controversy

There are few companies as controversial as Monsanto (Donald Rumsfeld anyone?).  Some accuse the company of nothing short of murder and others claim their innocence with just as much passion.   I ran across this story about the GM seeds and their effect in India. 

Shankara, like millions of other Indian farmers, had been promised previously unheard of harvests and income if he switched from farming with traditional seeds to planting GM seeds instead.

Beguiled by the promise of future riches, he borrowed money in order to buy the GM seeds. But when the harvests failed, he was left with spiralling debts – and no income.

So Shankara became one of an estimated 125,000 farmers to take their own life as a result of the ruthless drive to use India as a testing ground for genetically modified crops.

There are arguments to be made on both sides but I think the one thing that can’t be argued is that the poor and desperate have and will be used as guinea pigs because there is no one to protect them and thus no real downside from a monetary standpoint.  (When drugs expire in a pharmacy and deemed not safe for Americans, they are removed from the shelves and sent back to be sold to the 3rd world countries).   Monsanto and companies like it are completely protected regardless of whether they are wrong or right.  And with total protection comes recklessness as there are no consequences…

Bailouts – Changing the Variables of Business

Before the Government goes bailing everyone out, they should consider the guys they don’t have to bailout and the impact it will have on their businesses. 

Note:  forgive this simplistic scenario but you’ll get the overall point.  Let’s say you own a bank and you chose not to give out risky mortgages.  And let’s say you also chose not to buy up other banks risky mortgages.  You also choose not to invest your profits into mortgage bonds because you don’t know which are risky and which aren’t. 

If you were a bank and you chose not to do those three things then you would be called an “idiot” by nearly everyone in the industry between say 2003 – 2007.  Most of the other banks you were competing against were making millions of dollars on loans you refused to make.  But, let’s say you managed to keep your bank open and were still turning a profit, not at the levels of other banks but still a profit.

Now, it’s 2008 and you look pretty smart.  You are still turning a profit while your competitors are hurting and even going out of business which means their customers are coming to your bank.  Great you are set!  Wait, your competitors have hired lobbyist to fly to Washington to try and get the government to help them out.  The government is broke so they say no but your lobbyists are smart.  They start scaring everyone into thinking that if their clients fail then the whole system will fail and everyone (meaning voters) will suffer and blame those in congress.   They also get newspaper columnists to write articles scaring the public into believing this scenario.  Pointing out that “Joe Blah Blah” is at risk of losing his job and his money.

So Congress jumps on board.  Now, the government is pouring money into your competitors even though they made bad business decisions.   Your competitors survive and the bailout makes potential customers and investors more likely to actually throw their money into your competitors instead of your bank.  Guess what?  The Variables just changed and you were penalized for not being an “idiot”. 

You go out of business and your competitors gobble up your bank only to make the same mistake again in 5 years.  The executive boards and managers of those banks avoid any real damage and go on to repeat their mistake once again.  After all, they made millions and when they started to face losses…government bailed them out.  What’s the downside? 

Or take that scenario and say you are an automaker or a builder or an airline.

Why don’t the Networks show the Debates?

Not the presidential debates between McCain and Obama but the primary presidential debates.  They should replay those debates and if they wanted to save time they could just replay the McCain and Obama soundbites. 

Wouldn’t that make sense?  That would make some great TV.  Let’s hear what these guys were saying during the primaries.  Isn’t that a good indicator of how well they make decisions and how well they understand what’s going on in our country? 

I haven’t seen any clips from the primary season and I haven’t seen anyone put up clips of what these guys were saying then compared to what they are saying now.  It’s as if everyone just accepts the fact that they change their stories and message after just a few months. 

Also, after every debate I see these stories from the “fact checkers” that basically tell you how much of what is said in the debates by the candidates is true and which are not. Why does this have to come the day after?  Why can’t we call them on their BS during the debate?  It’s not hard to check those numbers and facts in a few minutes.  I think we have put up with enough BS over the past 8 years and I’d like to see us demand more from an election.

Where is all the Opium?

I missed this story when it first came out but I find it pretty interesting considering all that is happening in the world markets right now. 

It’s a mystery that has got British law enforcement officials and others across the planet scratching their heads. Put bluntly, enough heroin to supply the world’s demand for years has simply disappeared.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) describes the situation as “a time bomb for public health and global security”.

I really don’t have much else to add as I don’t have the answers.  I have my own theories but they are just that.  I’ll just say that we know that Afghanistan is producing more opium this year than even last year (when the numbers went so high)…but where is it?  That’s a lot of temptation and a lot of power within the reach of a lot of groups, both good guys and bad guys.

Republicans or Democrats…Who is to Blame?

I decided to actually watch CNN tonight to hear what all the pundits had to say about the bailout failing to pass.  Let’s just say my head hurts now.  Before I even get into the Dems and Repubs, it’s amazing to me that we only hear one side of this argument.  Everything on the news is how the bailout just has to be passed and it was a major mistake not to pass it.  What about the other side?  

I even heard these morons say that yes the bailout is horrible but we just have to pass it.  We do?  Can’t we pass something else?  Don’t we have the power to rewrite bills or make new bills that may work better?  I seem to remember reading that in Government Class.  CNN completely ignored the other side of the argument in all their newscasts tonight.   It’s like I’m listening to the state run news network just repeating the talking points handed to them by the administration…strange feeling.  This is the United States of America, right?

Ok, now on to Congress…Now let me see, I’ll start with the Repubs blaming Pelosi’s speech (her Speech!) for the bill not passing. Seriously? 

• Did your feelings get hurt?  How old are you idiots? 
• Just once, just once, I would love to hear the Republicans take responsibility for their actions.  Guys you failed to get the votes to pass this bill.  End of story. 
• They BLAMED THE SPEECH!  They continue to just amaze me.

Ok now I’m going to rip the Dems…so any Democrats out there who can’t take it then you better look away.

• Pelosi why do you still have a job?  Every day that you wake up do you look in the mirror and just ask yourself if you can screw up as bad as you did the day before?
• Did the Dems blame the Repubs for not getting enough votes?  They said that they got their fair share and the Republicans didn’t get theirs.  Are your legs broken?  Get off your asses and go get more votes if you believe in this thing so much.  WTF?  That’s the weakest argument I’ve ever heard…oh wait.  They blamed THE SPEECH!

So CNN went on to say that the house Republicans who voted against the bill were putting their re-elections ahead of the country.  But, then they went on to say that 90% of the calls into those same Repubs offices have been against the bailout.  Don’t they work for those people?  Aren’t they supposed to represent them?  I’m so sick of this crap about putting the country ahead of everything else…this is not the Soviet Union!  You are free to have differing views here in this country.  In fact, it’s healthy and natural. 

The majority of American people do not support this bill and the congress who represents them voted it down. So what’s the problem?  If it’s so important then explain it to the people of this country and stop trying to scare them into supporting it.  I mean, I know that’s Bush’s only motivational tactic but someone in congress should be able to do something.  How about those two idiots running for President?  Maybe they could explain it to the American people.  I’m pretty sure that’s how this whole thing called government was supposed to work.

And does anyone, anyone have a problem with the Democrats in Congress lining up behind President Bush on this? 

I know this post is long but I got one more thing to say.  Where is Dick Cheney?  Where do you think his money is?  Dubai?

Sarah Palin is an embarrassment

She is in way over her head and needs to quit and “spend time with her family” (always useful and sounds better than “I quit”).

That’s all.

Getting up to Speed on the Economy

I’ve had quite a few people ask me about the economy lately…what I think of the bailouts and whose fault all this is.  And most of the time I just don’t know where to start.  It’s not simple to explain.

First of all, anyone who says they can provide a quick summary of the problem is wrong…there is not a quick summary of this.  It’s not just about the risky mortgages given out over the past 10 years, it’s not just about the consumer debt, and it’s not just a Republican or Democrat issue. 

It is affecting the entire world…global crisis if you will.  So that should tell you right away that this isn’t simple.  Let’s take a look at some of the issues going on right now:

• That 700 Billion Dollar Number means absolutely nothing.  They just made it up.   “It’s not based on any particular data point,” a Treasury spokeswoman told Forbes.com Tuesday. “We just wanted to choose a really large number.”
• The original bailout bill was only 3 pages!  3 Pages for 700 billion dollars?  Anyone who knows anything about bills realizes that this is unheard of.  They just wanted a blank check with no oversight and didn’t even try to disguise it.  Those that think it is a bad thing that the bill is a lot longer now need to go back and read that “700 Billion” one more time.
• Paulson is leaving office in 4 months – meaning he can be heavily infuenced by outside forces in his decision making
• The bailout will not help the average person at all.  That’s why they don’t care that the majority of Americans are against it.
• It’s only putting off the inevitable…the market has to correct itself at some point.  Housing Prices were artificially high and interest rates artificially low. 
• Why are these other spending bills going through right now?  Nasa buying Russian Spacecraft, Missile Defense Systems, Huge Defense Spending Bill – 634 billion
• If you want to try and protect yourself.  change your money into something other than US dollars.

There is one interesting question that really makes you think.  Who is putting the pressure on the US Gov’t to do this Bailout Deal ASAP?  I don’t have the answer…and it makes my head hurt to speculate on it. 

And for all of you that say that the bailout is needed and everyone who is in the know agrees…read this.

And if you want to learn a little more about this crisis then take a look at the derivatives bubble and the credit default swaps.  It’s not so much that the banks gave out bad mortgages as it is what they did with those mortgages once they had them.    And I think Obama and McCain have zero idea what to do.  McCain proved in the Republican primaries that he is clueless on the economy. 

But notice again how fear is playing a role in all of this and the Democrats are the first to fold…leaving so called “Rebel Republicans to fight”.   Rebel Republicans – who see Paulson’s proposals as socialism by the back door – were warned they will be responsible for causing an “amazing catastrophe” if they continue to oppose the plans, which would see taxpayers buy up the bad debts of failing banks. 

What’s it called when the National Government Owns and Controls the Market?

Brad Johnson Should Start Over Tony Romo

I’m serious.  Look at what everyone is saying about Brad Johnson’s dominating pre season performance:

2. Brad Johnson. Can we now leave Brad Johnson alone? Finished two scoring drives including a long pass play.

Leave him alone?  Give him the starting job!  And look what Spagnola has to say over at dallascowboys.com

Johnson was razor sharp, and against the Broncos’ first-team defense, mind you, completing nine of 12 passes for 114 yards and one touchdown.

To those who say his arm is shot, we give you the mighty fine 37-yard pass to Austin streaking down the right sideline. To those who say he won’t hang in the pocket, we give you the perfectly thrown five-yard fade to Austin for a touchdown. And for those who wanted to insist after the San Diego game that he is so old he can’t make good decisions anymore, we give you the 11-yard pass to tight end Martellus Bennett, a nine-yarder to Isaiah Stanback and the six-yarder to Tony Curtis, showing he’s patient enough to take what the defense during a two-minute drill will give him.

I mean even Tony Romo gets into the act:

Tony Romo did, coming up from behind the team’s oldest player, throwing his arms around his 39-year-old shoulders, and with the biggest smile you’ve ever seen proclaim, “That’s 2001 right there; that’s Brad Johnson 2001.”

Romo spoke of his immediate backup, the soon-to-be 40-year-old quarterback who had a vintage year in 2001, leading his Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Super Bowl title, basically playing the same style of football then as so many are quick to criticize and want to retire him for now.

Brad Johnson is the only answer to the question “which QB can lead the cowboys to the super bowl”?  Don’t believe me?  Are you a Brad Johnson Hater/Doubter?  Then check out these stats:

Brad Johnson has a career passer rating of 83.1 (one year it was as high as 92.9!)…what’s Romo’s you ask?  A pathetic 96.5(worthless) and he’s already got almost 2 years of playing experience.  And Brad Johnson is clearly the more accurate passer (even though he only throws downfield and never dump offs) with a career mark of 61.8 compared to Romo’s erratic 64.4.  How Does Dallas expect to win anything with Romo?

Let’s talk TD’s.  Johnson once threw 26 TD’s in one year!  One freaking year!  So he threw 21 picks also…still 26!  Romo barely topped 35 TD’s last year.    Also, Brad knows how to get the ball downfield and show off his rocket arm with a career avg of 6.7 per attempt while Romo with his weak girly arm is afraid to go down the field and dumps the ball off at 8.3 per attempt.   You starting to get on the Brad Johnson express?

It’s pretty clear that Brad Johnson can not only still play in the NFL (he dominates in the pre season)but he just opened up an old fashioned can of quarterback controversy in Dallas (Hogeboom?).  Dallas can continue to sputter along with Romo or they can take a chance on the 39 year old young rocket arm of Brad Johnson.

My name is Brad,  Brad Johnson.

I keep the ladies in the 90’s, Cravin.

Who’s That Rocking the Spot,(It Brad Johnson)
Who’s that keepin it hot,(I’m Brad Johnson)
Who’s That Bringin the pain,(It’s Brad Johnson)